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Tracking and Analysis of Hot Issues in Integrated Circuits
Source: Sanfang Xinli Microelectronics Release time: 2016-10-31
How Far Can Moore's Law Go
The wires connecting transistors are getting thinner and thinner, so that their resistance is too large to carry enough current, so now everyone is looking for new materials to replace silicon-based materials; Moore's Law is likely to start at some time, starting with The rate of doubling every year slows down to doubling every 4-5 years.
Continuation of Moore's Law: molecular-level transistors, new memories
2. Semiconductor process progress
The current pace of technological progress has not slowed down, wafer fabs are rushing to produce advanced processes
3.System makers strengthen IC R & D
Before the integrated circuit from IDM to division of labor, now it returns to the system integration plant. It is estimated that this is mainly stimulated by Apple. Now more and more system OEMs are starting to develop their own chips, and the proportion is expected to increase from 4% in 2010 to 14% in 2020. This is not good for integrated circuit companies, and may be reduced to the second supplier of these complete machine factories.
4. Development of China's integrated circuit industry
China's market size of more than 300 billion yuan, the statistics is the direct accumulation of packaging, manufacturing, design. In fact, only the output value of the design link should be 17-20 billion U.S. dollars, and domestic demand is 80 billion U.S. dollars, so the self-sufficiency rate is about 25%, which is very low.
Our imports are mainly processing trade imports, 109.2 billion, where does this come from? The Customs monitors logistics for US $ 80.4 billion and also sells it back; general trade US $ 35.5 billion, this is our actual import.
Microprocessor imports were 105.2 billion US dollars, 48.3%; memory imports were 54.3 billion, 24.9%.
15Q1 import unit price is 0.719 USD, 2Q unit price is 0.722 USD; 1Q export unit price is 0.333 USD, and 2Q export unit price is 0.378 USD. The ICs we export are much lower than the ICs we import.
5. Investment M & A
The global semiconductor industry has entered a mature stage, mainly reflected in the absence of venture capital, the number of listed companies has decreased, and the number of IPOs has decreased.
The main reason for global semiconductor industry mergers and acquisitions is to benefit shareholders.
Overall, China's current self-sufficiency rate is 10%; natural development, from 2025 to 22.9%, with fund support from 2025 to 31%, optimism can reach 39%.
Qingxin Huachuang's acquisition, the question is who will manage it in the future; Wu Yuefeng investment, Jianguang Capital also have the same problem. Therefore, domestic mergers and acquisitions of the semiconductor industry, ideally still need industrial intervention, more optimistic about Tongfang Guoxin acquisition of Huaxin Semiconductor, Changdian acquisition of Xingke Jinpeng.
1) Moore's Law continues, but encounters many challenges. At present, it seems that the semiconductor process is technically feasible toward sub-nanometers, and it is unknown whether it is economically feasible.
2) Semiconductor process technology continues to evolve, but China ’s integrated circuit manufacturing process will maintain a gap of about four years before 2020 and the international advanced level.
3) Complete machine companies favor chip R & D again
4) China's integrated circuit industry continues to develop at a high speed, but the fundamental contradiction that restricts the realization of the leap cannot be resolved in the short term.
5) From a global perspective, semiconductors have entered mature industries, but they are still high-tech industries in China. Investment is currently the hottest content in China's integrated circuits, but the method of investment is questionable.
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